Thursday, May 30, 2013

Time to Get proactive

It is in India’s interest to come out in the open and help restore regional balance

The conditions in Afghanistan are quite uncertain and in this complex situation, it is important that we keep our focus very clear. There are enough indications that the Pakistan Army and its Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) are going to try to install a pro-Pakistan government in Kabul. Once US troops depart, things are going to become difficult for its President Hamid Karzai, who may find himself besieged when Pakistan goes all out to help install a Taliban leader as its choice to head the government. There are other pro-Pakistani elements in the country who would be more than willing to lend a helping hand.

The US is vacating the country at a time when the Afghanistan National Army and it security set-up is neither complete nor fool-proof. If this very important tool of the government is weak or not effective enough, it will present serious difficulties in governing the country and to take things forward.

The situation will be aggravated with the popularity of Hamid Karzai, who despite being the most credible leader in that country at the moment, will face serious fragmentation of leadership under a new political dispensation. This big window of uncertainty will give space to Pakistan to
manoeuvre events according to its needs – and the needs of its allies.
It the eventuality of such a scenario developing, the threat perception to India’s national security would increase manifold. It is important therefore that New Delhi does everything required to ensure that its vital interests are safe and secure.

There is nothing wrong in coming out in the open to take a position which is in her self-interest and the well-being of Afghanistan which was India’s neighbour before Pakistan came into existence.

India has done serious ground work to bolster Afghanistan’s most important sectors; agriculture, education and health. It is making a difference to the lives of common people. I don’t think we should be shy of taking a stand nor reduce our role to make things better for the country and its people. We are a regional power and we have tremendous responsibility in this region. The country has been taking steps in Afghanistan, short of military support, but has avoided taking a public position. It is important that we do so keeping the regional balance of power in mind. Problems, if allowed to fester, have long-term consequences for us and the region.

Afghanistan is the gateway to central Asia, a strategic position which can help her to regain part of her economic base. India can assist in building infrastructure and conducting trade and other economic activities which will help both the friendly countries.

Economic activity needs to be given utmost priority, for only when the country generates its own revenue will it be able to fund its security forces and dedicate money for the much- needed infrastructure which will enforce the writ of the government. Once this cycle is set in motion, it will pay rich dividends and set the ground for Afghanistan’s revival.

It would also be instructive to remember that given half-a-chance, China will walk in and Pakistan will take their ‘help’ in securing what they consider their vital interests in Afghanistan. India needs to reassess its ongoing projects to find out areas where it can increase its support. For example, it can raise the number of people from the Afghan Security Forces being trained in India. There are a number of students from Afghanistan studying at important educational centres in India. We are already training professionals, including engineers, journalists and civil servants, who will contribute in raising a strong democratic set-up in their country.

We have always enjoyed good relations with the Afghan people and our diplomats and intelligence agencies have always found support in that country. It should be put to good use. This becomes doubly important when Pakistan is grappling with a number of serious issues – some which have the potential to tear it apart. If Islamabad, to divert attention from its own insurmountable problems, is able to meddle in the already muddied situation in Afghanistan, it will be detrimental to the interest of the people there.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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